British Foreign Policy Must-Reads: April

Reports

1. Funding European defence—Bruegel: The governance and funding of European rearmament. Europe faces a grave security threat. Gaps in European military equipment are substantial compared to Russia’s military build-up. The European defence market is fragmented and weakened by home bias in procurement, low order numbers and technological gaps. These problems reflect the combination of past reliance on the United States and Europe’s nationally-based defence governance. With the US now retreating from its role of European guardian, greater cooperation is essential to close technological gaps and reduce rearmament costs. Unless procurement is pooled and fragmentation reduced, additional demand for defence goods will mainly drive up prices. Better-integrated defence markets would both increase competition and facilitate entry of new defence technology firms. The combination of integrated markets and scaled-up procurement could lead to a halving of unit costs. 

2. European defence—Jacques Delors Institute: Defence 25: thinking outside the box. Europe is under more threat today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Above and beyond the war in Ukraine, the greatest threat lies in the major uncertainty governing the policies of the two powers that will determine its future: the United States and Russia. No one knows what Donald Trump has in store for us, just as no one knows exactly what the weaknesses and strengths of Vladimir Putin’s Russia are. It is this double confusion that requires European states and institutions to give priority to strategic issues. But this double uncertainty also requires Europeans to think outside the box when it comes to European defence.

3. UK-EU Relations—CER: Will EU enlargement create new models for the EU-UK relationship? Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is reshaping European politics. One consequence is the new momentum behind EU enlargement. Three years after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine and Moldova have joined Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Türkiye in the process of negotiating accession to the EU. Another effect of Russia’s invasion is greater pressure for closer EU-UK co-operation, particularly in defence.

4. Migration—Institute for Government: Why government should introduce an annual Migration Plan. An annual Migration Plan would allow the government to move on from the incoherent way immigration policy has been made in the past.

5. Energy—CER: Power losses: What's holding back European electricity trade? More electricity trade is urgently needed to curtail Europe’s risky dependence on gas imports – from Russia, the US and the Gulf – and to speed the transition to net zero. UK offshore wind will be an increasingly important source of European power, but trade is being hampered by post-Brexit arrangements

Books, Articles and Chapters

1. Book on Iraq—Chris Featherstone: The Road to War in Iraq: Comparative Foreign Policy Analysis. Develops a combination of FPA models to analysis UK and US decision-making that led to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Shows how a framework of combined FPA models can be useful in two different governmental systems. Examines many aspects of the individual level of decision-making in the US and UK through thre three FPA models

2. Japan—Thomas French (Ed.) New Perspectives on Peacetime Anglo–Japanese Military Relations: Old Friends, New Partners. Book—This book examines the peacetime military relationship between the United Kingdom and Japan spanning partnerships and interactions from the 1860s to the present day. Reflecting the multiple changes in the power dynamics, relations, and nature of the military links between the U.K. and Japan over time, the chapters in this book analyse instances of peacetime military interaction as both countries passed through periods of partnership, alliance, rivalry, conflict, and occupation. In doing so, the book also considers what relevance these historical U.K.– Japan peacetime military ties have relevance for those of the present. Original in its exclusive focus on peacetime military links of both a historical and contemporary nature, this significant work is both practical and scholarly in its approach and will appeal to students and scholars of Japanese history, British history, military history, international relations, and diplomacy.

3. Europe’s nuclear weapons—Foreign Affairs: Europe’s Nuclear Trilemma. The Difficult and Dangerous Options for Post-American Deterrence

4. EU Relations—Emmanuel Guinchard, Carlo Panara, The New Relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Book—Brexit has reshuffled the cards of the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. It is a one in a lifetime event, which ended nearly 50 years of EU Membership. EU law as such no longer applies in the United Kingdom and British citizens and companies no longer benefit from its advantages. Part of the previous regime has however been maintained (at times with amendments) through the series of treaties negotiated between the UK and the EU in 2019 and 2020, in particular the Trade and Cooperation Agreement of 2020, to which the 2023 Windsor Agreement can be added. The end result is a legal regime which is perhaps even more complex than EU law itself. This book aims to provide the reader with a clarification of this legal regime as well as provide context to it and suggestions to improve it. All key topics are covered, such as citizens of the EU in the UK and British citizens in the EU, trade in goods and in services, criminal justice, public procurement, Northern Ireland, the UK overseas territories, the dispute settlement, security and defence, international trade agreements of the UK post-Brexit, environmental protection, European civil justice, financial services, education and research, and the European offices of the UK local authorities and devolved administrations after Brexit. All the chapters follow, wherever possible, the same triadic structure. The first part looks at the regime prior to Brexit; the second part analyses the current regime; and the third part discusses ongoing and predictable trends. The concluding chapter attempts to identify some themes likely to impact on the forthcoming preparation of the 2026 review.

5. Brexit and FDI—Simionescu, M., Horobet, A., & Dalu (Ionescu), M. A. (2025). Navigating uncertainty: the effects of Brexit on foreign direct investment in the United Kingdom. Journal of Applied Economics, 28(1). Considering the potential economic effects of Brexit, this paper investigates the impact of Brexit on foreign direct investment (FDI) attracted by the United Kingdom (UK) using several methodological and complementary approaches. Counterfactual analysis based on synthetic control method (SCM) and difference-in-differences (DID) methodology revealed that UK would have attracted more FDI after Brexit if it had remained in the EU, but the difference is not statistically significant. The panel data models showed that heightened economic growth in EU-27 countries enhanced the FDI made by these states in the UK before Brexit (2013–2019) and after it. On the other hand, higher economic growth and increased political stability in the non-EU countries in the sample reduced the FDI in the UK in both subperiods. The findings contribute valuable policy insights on utilizing strategic trade agreements, investment incentives, regulatory frameworks, infrastructure development, and targeted sector-specific initiatives to mitigate Brexit’s negative FDI impacts.

6. Brexit and policing—Bullock, K., Hadfield, A., Keningale, P., Mallett, E., Tong, S., & Wellings, F. (2025). United Kingdom-European Union policing and law enforcement cooperation in the post-Brexit era. Policing and Society, 1–14. Cooperation between European law enforcement agencies has grown reflecting deepening social and economic cooperation between European states. The formal withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) (‘Brexit’) generated concerns that the ever-developing structures and processes of cooperation would become fragmented with implications for security. However, few studies have empirically documented the impact of Brexit in its immediate aftermath on policing cooperation. This article starts to fill this empirical gap. Between 2021 and 2023, we drew on a substantial number of interviews with senior, active stakeholders from both police and judicial cooperation in UK and EU areas, in order to critically assess how UK and EU law enforcement personnel have understood the changes brought about by Brexit and worked together in the immediate post-Brexit environment. We find a perception amongst stakeholders that the UK’s departure from the EU was muted over the immediate Brexit period. This was the result of formal contingency planning pre-Brexit, enduring informal relationships between practitioners, and a ‘cushioning’ effect provided by the COVID-19 pandemic travel restrictions. However, we also find complexity. Stakeholders reporting that the implications of Brexit may not be revealed for some time; a perception that the UK had lost influence in decision-making at both the policy and operational level; and that some areas of UK-EU cooperation have been more affected than others (notably in the fields of information exchange and extradition). We consider the implications of these findings.

7. Reviewing strategy—Bennett, H. (2025). New writings on grand strategy. Intelligence and National Security, 1–7. The recent revival in the study of grand strategy owes much to the search for meaning about the West’s global purpose after the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. Long dominated by writing on the United States, the field is now more diverse than ever and unlikely to disappear any time soon, as scholars come under pressure to produce work deemed relevant to those in power. The urge to generate useful lessons for governments can undermine the search for original knowledge as the basic purpose of scholarly research, though this is not always the case. This tendency is, however, evident in the titles under review.

8. Europe or America—Donnelly, B. (2025). Will the UK Choose America or Europe?. In: Kaeding, M., Pollak, J., Schmidt, P. (eds) The United States and the Future of Europe. Springer, Cham. As part of its rapprochement with the EU, the new UK government hopes to reinforce its collaboration with the EU on defence matters. This may involve an unwelcome choice between America and Europe.

9. Brexit Unknowns—Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies: Iusmen, I., & Koren, T. (2025). The ‘Unknown Unknowns’: Brexit, the EUSS and the challenges of governing complexity. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 1–19. Brexit’s project of ‘re-bordering’ Britain impacted residency rights for EU nationals in the UK. Rather than focusing on how EU nationals experience the consequences of Brexit in the UK, this paper focuses on how the key policy instrument, the EUSS (EU Settlement Scheme) described as a complex system, ‘complexifies’ EU nationals’ regularisation of their residency status in the UK. Using qualitative interviews with frontline workers involved in the EUSS application process, we analyse this complexity across three dimensions. First, how digital governance enables the EUSS’s agile approach, based on a mobile and flexible norm that generates uncertainty and confusion. Second, how outsourcing responsibility to non-governmental organisations to assist EU nationals’ application to the scheme increases diversity in the availability for help and blurs accountability. Third, the uneven and never complete distribution of knowledge generates complexity as there remain ‘unknown unknowns’. Taken together, this paper adds to the literature on complex policy systems by scrutinising the role of digital governance and outsourcing, while highlighting how these two policy dimensions can further compound the availability of policy knowledge.

10. Brexit lessons—Norbäck, PJ. (2025). What Can the EU Learn from Brexit?. In: Ekman, P., Lundqvist, B., Michalski, A., Oxelheim, L. (eds) The Depth and Size of the European Union in a Time of War. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. The UK’s relationship with Europe has long been a contentious issue. This chapter explores the UK's decision to remain outside early European integration in the 1950s, its shift towards seeking membership in the 1960s, and its eventual entry into the European Economic Community in the 1970s. It then examines the 2016 referendum that led to the UK's exit from the EU—Brexit—and what lessons the EU can draw from it. Although driven by national concerns, Brexit can also be seen as a protest vote fuelled by the economic fallout of the financial crisis and long-term effects of globalisation and technological change. This highlights the need for the EU to address broader economic and social discontent through reforms aimed at growth and productivity. In today’s global landscape, marked by geopolitical tensions and climate change, deeper cooperation among EU member states is essential. The unity shown during Brexit negotiations provides a model for such cooperation. While the UK is unlikely to rejoin the EU soon, the chapter concludes that the EU should encourage the UK to engage with a broader European community.

11. Brexit effect—Aylott, N. (2025). The Brexit Effect: How Has British Withdrawal Shaped the EU’s Development?. In: Ekman, P., Lundqvist, B., Michalski, A., Oxelheim, L. (eds) The Depth and Size of the European Union in a Time of War. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. Much scholarly work has already examined the causes of “Brexit”, the departure of Britain from the European Union. The main question addressed in the current chapter, by contrast, is: what has the Brexit referendum, and Britain's subsequent drawn-out exit, meant for the EU? Has Brexit required concerted remedial action by the Union's supranational political actors, member states, and political parties? Or have operations just carried on largely as before, only with 27 member states rather than 28? In trying to disentangle the Brexit effect from many other effects on the EU since 2016, I employ a simple counterfactual approach. Given what we know about the preferences of the actors within the EU and of successive British governments, the chapter asks whether it is likely that much would have been different had Britain still been a member when the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine unfolded. Thereafter, it addresses the development of public opinion and political-party behaviour throughout Europe in relation to membership of the EU. The general conclusion is that, far from impeding European integration, Brexit has contributed to its acceleration. However, the future remains uncertain. It is not inevitable that this integrative effect will endure.

12. China—Shaun Breslin (2025) Where Does Discourse Take Us? Perceptions of the State(craft) in UK-China Relations, in Révész, Ágota, et al., editors. Narrating China and Europe in Uncertain Times. 1st ed., Bristol University Press, 2025. JSTOR.

Select Comment and News Pieces

Strategy

1. Global strategy—War on the Rocks: Rewind and Reconnoiter: Post-Brexit British Power on the Global Stage 

2. Middle powers—FT: Britain should embrace European and other middle powers. With the US and China facing off in a tariff war, the time has come for the UK to pivot

3. Strategic Review—Council on Geostrategy: How should the next National Security Strategy differ from the integrated reviews?

USA

1. Digital tech—Chatham House: Putting the Digital Services Tax on the table in US negotiations sends worrying signal on UK digital sovereignty. It would likely be unpopular for a government that has cut welfare services and introduced new taxes on UK businesses, but it also risks undermining wider attempts to regulate big tech.

2. Future relations—The Guardian: Britain cannot afford to gamble on America returning to its senses. We must urgently look elsewhere. Ministers are insisting that Trump’s regime can still be a friend. It’s a delusion and a lie

3. Special relationship—FT: So much for the Trump Brexit dividend. The US president’s tariffs on UK cars and other exports reveal the hollow promise of global Britain

4. Special relationship 2—FT: Dropping UK fantasy of managing Trump could spark smarter policy. Labour should think about seizing opportunities from the mess such as attracting US academics and wealthy people

5. Special relationship 3—FT: There is no such thing as a Trump whisperer. Western leaders who are said to be on special terms with the US president have nothing to show for it

6. US Trade deal—New Statesman: Could North Sea oil unlock a US trade deal? Embracing “drill, baby, drill” in rhetoric if not in practice could win the President round.

7. Science—New Statesman: America’s crisis is the UK’s opportunity. Keir Starmer should open our doors to the best and the brightest fleeing Donald Trump.

8. What special relationship—Huffington Post: Majority Of Brits No Longer Think Of Trump's America As An Ally, Poll Shows. What "special relationship"?

EU

1. Reset—Institute for Government: UK–EU reset. What are the prospects for the government's promised reset of relations with the European Union?

2. The European Question—UKICE: Did Brexit solve the problems of the UK’s relationship with the EU? Simon Usherwood examines the impact Brexit has had on the UK and the EU, arguing it has not helped to resolve a historically ambivalent relationship with the future still looking uncertain.

Global economy 

1. Starmer on globalisation 1—The Telegraph: The world as we knew it has gone. Nobody wins from a trade war. My Government will champion the voice of British industry on the international stage.

2. Starmer on globalisation 2—New Statesman: Starmer’s middle way on globalisation. The Prime Minister is challenging both protectionists and liberals.

3. Europe, UK, global economy—Chatham House: Europe must forge a new role in the global economy. Only Europe can begin to fill the void left by the US’s withdrawal from its post-war global economic leadership role. The EU and UK should make this goal a shared priority

4. Conservatives and free trade—New Statesman: Of Truss, Trump and tariffs. Confusion on the right over trade is nothing new.

5. Steel—Chatham House: The UK’s last-minute takeover of British Steel exposes its reactive approach to economic security. The British government needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking defence-industrial strategy to ensure its national security.

Defence 

1. Nuclear weapons—Council on Geostrategy: The case for a British sub-strategic nuclear deterrent

2. Defence funding—RUSI: How can Europe Fund its Defence without Breaking the Bank? As defence budgets grow across Europe, fragmented procurement, tight budgets, and currency instability demand innovative financial solutions. The Defence, Security and Resilience Bank might hold the key to balancing security and economic stability.

3. US-UK defence—UKICE: Trump, NATO and Britain’s shattered defence dream. Andrew M Dorman argues that the UK must rethink its defence strategy as U.S. support becomes increasingly uncertain under Donald Trump.

4. Arctic—RUSI: Frozen Out: Why the UK Must Step Up in the Arctic. The Arctic is set to be a proving ground for the navies of the High North. As warmer temperatures open up shipping routes for longer each year, great resources are at stake, and a determination to exert control is growing evident among the UK’s neighbours in the region. 

5. AUKUS—The Strategist: Britain recasts AUKUS for a new era. Britain once risked a reputation as the weak link in the trilateral AUKUS partnership. But now the appointment of an empowered senior official to drive the project forward and a new burst of British parliamentary engagement reveal an ambitious new posture.

Rest of World

1. China—Trends: Can Keir Starmer Reset Britain’s Relationship with China? 

2. China—Politico: Britain suddenly gets tough on China as it craves a Trump deal. As No. 10 tries to prove to the U.S. that it’s on the same page, a string of recent policy moves send a signal to Washington.

3. Aid—FT: UK aid cuts are a ‘blow to Britain’s reputation’, David Miliband warns. Head of International Rescue Committee says reductions cannot come at worse time.

4. Russia—War on the rocks: Putin’s Spies for Hire: What the U.K.’s Biggest Espionage Trial Revealed about Kremlin Tactics in Wartime Europe. Three convictions, three guilty pleas. Inside the “minions” spy cell and Russia’s push to develop espionage freelancers.